NFL Cross-Venue Dashboard

2026 Week 1 · ML + Spread + Total · vs pinnacle (the-odds-api.com) · 16 games / 48 rows · 32 flagged

Cross-venue moneyline — P(home win)

Matchup / kickoff	Model%	Pinnacle%	Betfair%	Kalshi%	Poly%	Δ venues
ATL @ PITSun Sep 13, 2026	61.7%	59.7%	57.2%	52.7%49/60c · OI 872	—	7.0pp
GB @ MINSun Sep 13, 2026	51.3%	51.4%	48.9%	47.3%44/51c · OI 1692	—	4.2pp
CHI @ CARSun Sep 13, 2026	44.7%	42.2%	44.9%	41.0%36/44c · OI 496	—	3.9pp
MIA @ LVSun Sep 13, 2026	57.3%	63.6%	64.3%	60.6%62/64c · OI 989	—	3.8pp
NYJ @ TENSun Sep 13, 2026	50.9%	58.8%	55.1%	57.4%57/60c · OI 384	—	3.7pp
BAL @ INDSun Sep 13, 2026	42.4%	36.8%	35.7%	39.3%37/42c · OI 761	—	3.6pp
SF @ LAThu Sep 10, 2026	51.5%	63.6%	64.3%	61.1%60/64c · OI 4007	—	3.2pp
CLE @ JAXSun Sep 13, 2026	69.4%	76.0%	78.5%	76.1%75/78c · OI 2040	—	2.5pp
DEN @ KCMon Sep 14, 2026	63.9%	58.3%	58.6%	56.2%54/60c · OI 521	—	2.5pp
NO @ DETSun Sep 13, 2026	74.1%	75.0%	76.7%	74.4%72/76c · OI 1998	—	2.3pp
DAL @ NYGSun Sep 13, 2026	50.3%	41.3%	42.8%	40.7%39/44c · OI 2881	—	2.1pp
TB @ CINSun Sep 13, 2026	61.9%	63.5%	62.7%	61.8%63/65c · OI 322	—	1.7pp
NE @ SEAWed Sep 9, 2026	51.2%	65.9%	64.3%	65.2%66/67c · OI 12555	—	1.6pp
BUF @ HOUSun Sep 13, 2026	42.1%	50.0%	48.9%	49.3%49/51c · OI 1192	—	1.1pp
WAS @ PHISun Sep 13, 2026	59.0%	65.6%	66.5%	66.5%65/68c · OI 229	—	0.9pp
ARI @ LACSun Sep 13, 2026	57.3%	82.2%	82.7%	82.5%81/84c · OI 2479	—	0.5pp

venues fetched 2026-06-20T21:03:05 · pinnacle: 16, betfair_es: 16, kalshi: 16, polymarket: 0 · 16 games with >=2 market venues priced.

Paper-trade slate — model vs book (per market)

Sorted by |edge| descending across ALL markets. EDGE > 3pp rows are highlighted. Model% / Market% are the probability of the listed selection (home win for ML, home cover for the spread, over for the total); EDGE = model − market. PRICE = the selection's odds. PICK = the model's hypothesis side.

Matchup / kickoff	Market	Model%	Market%	Edge	Price
ARI @ LACSun Sep 13, 2026	MLhome	57.3%	82.2%	-24.9pp FLAG	-530
ARI @ LACSun Sep 13, 2026	Spreadhome -10.5	28.0%	50.0%	-22.0pp FLAG	-106
ATL @ PITSun Sep 13, 2026	Totalover 41.5	68.4%	51.4%	+17.0pp FLAG	-114
DEN @ KCMon Sep 14, 2026	Totalover 42.5	65.6%	50.2%	+15.3pp FLAG	-109
NE @ SEAWed Sep 9, 2026	MLhome	51.2%	65.9%	-14.7pp FLAG	-208
NYJ @ TENSun Sep 13, 2026	Totalover 38.5	62.5%	49.8%	+12.7pp FLAG	-107
SF @ LAThu Sep 10, 2026	MLhome	51.5%	63.6%	-12.2pp FLAG	-187
CLE @ JAXSun Sep 13, 2026	Totalover 40.5	62.3%	50.2%	+12.1pp FLAG	-109
SF @ LAThu Sep 10, 2026	Spreadhome -3	42.8%	54.3%	-11.5pp FLAG	-126
MIA @ LVSun Sep 13, 2026	Totalover 40.5	61.4%	50.0%	+11.4pp FLAG	-108
TB @ CINSun Sep 13, 2026	Totalover 52	38.9%	50.0%	-11.2pp FLAG	-108
DAL @ NYGSun Sep 13, 2026	Spreadhome +2	56.1%	46.1%	+10.0pp FLAG	+110
NE @ SEAWed Sep 9, 2026	Spreadhome -4.5	38.2%	47.8%	-9.6pp FLAG	+103
NO @ DETSun Sep 13, 2026	Totalover 49.5	40.8%	50.0%	-9.2pp FLAG	-108
DAL @ NYGSun Sep 13, 2026	MLhome	50.3%	41.3%	+9.0pp FLAG	+134
NYJ @ TENSun Sep 13, 2026	Spreadhome -2.5	43.7%	52.2%	-8.5pp FLAG	-116
BUF @ HOUSun Sep 13, 2026	MLhome	42.1%	50.0%	-7.9pp FLAG	-106
NYJ @ TENSun Sep 13, 2026	MLhome	50.9%	58.8%	-7.8pp FLAG	-152
DEN @ KCMon Sep 14, 2026	Spreadhome -3	55.4%	47.5%	+7.8pp FLAG	+104
BUF @ HOUSun Sep 13, 2026	Spreadhome +1	45.0%	51.6%	-6.7pp FLAG	-113
WAS @ PHISun Sep 13, 2026	MLhome	59.0%	65.6%	-6.7pp FLAG	-205
CLE @ JAXSun Sep 13, 2026	MLhome	69.4%	76.0%	-6.6pp FLAG	-351
MIA @ LVSun Sep 13, 2026	MLhome	57.3%	63.6%	-6.3pp FLAG	-187
GB @ MINSun Sep 13, 2026	Totalover 45.5	54.5%	48.6%	+5.9pp FLAG	-102
BAL @ INDSun Sep 13, 2026	MLhome	42.4%	36.8%	+5.7pp FLAG	+161
DEN @ KCMon Sep 14, 2026	MLhome	63.9%	58.3%	+5.6pp FLAG	-149
NO @ DETSun Sep 13, 2026	Spreadhome -7	55.4%	50.0%	+5.4pp FLAG	-106
SF @ LAThu Sep 10, 2026	Totalover 48.5	53.8%	49.8%	+4.1pp FLAG	-107
BUF @ HOUSun Sep 13, 2026	Totalover 44	55.6%	51.6%	+4.0pp FLAG	-115
CHI @ CARSun Sep 13, 2026	Totalover 45.5	46.6%	50.2%	-3.7pp FLAG	-109
BAL @ INDSun Sep 13, 2026	Totalover 47.5	47.0%	50.5%	-3.5pp FLAG	-110
WAS @ PHISun Sep 13, 2026	Totalover 47.5	51.1%	48.0%	+3.1pp FLAG	+100
CHI @ CARSun Sep 13, 2026	Spreadhome +2.5	52.0%	49.1%	+2.9pp	-102
TB @ CINSun Sep 13, 2026	Spreadhome -3.5	51.9%	49.1%	+2.8pp	-102
CHI @ CARSun Sep 13, 2026	MLhome	44.7%	42.2%	+2.5pp	+129
MIA @ LVSun Sep 13, 2026	Spreadhome -3.5	47.1%	49.3%	-2.2pp	-103
ATL @ PITSun Sep 13, 2026	MLhome	61.7%	59.7%	+2.0pp	-158
WAS @ PHISun Sep 13, 2026	Spreadhome -4	47.4%	49.3%	-1.9pp	-103
TB @ CINSun Sep 13, 2026	MLhome	61.9%	63.5%	-1.6pp	-186
DAL @ NYGSun Sep 13, 2026	Totalover 47.5	52.9%	51.4%	+1.5pp	-114
BAL @ INDSun Sep 13, 2026	Spreadhome +3.5	52.6%	51.2%	+1.4pp	-111
CLE @ JAXSun Sep 13, 2026	Spreadhome -7.5	48.3%	49.4%	-1.1pp	-104
GB @ MINSun Sep 13, 2026	Spreadhome +1	54.2%	53.2%	+1.0pp	-121
ATL @ PITSun Sep 13, 2026	Spreadhome -2.5	54.6%	53.7%	+0.9pp	-123
NO @ DETSun Sep 13, 2026	MLhome	74.1%	75.0%	-0.9pp	-330
NE @ SEAWed Sep 9, 2026	Totalover 44.5	49.4%	50.0%	-0.6pp	-108
ARI @ LACSun Sep 13, 2026	Totalover 46	49.9%	50.0%	-0.1pp	-108
GB @ MINSun Sep 13, 2026	MLhome	51.3%	51.4%	-0.1pp	-112

Generated 2026-06-20T21:21:40 · source: the-odds-api.com / pinnacle · markets: ML + Spread + Total · 16 games / 48 priced rows · 32 flagged · 0 unmatched · 0 oddsless (no posted odds).

Predicted lineup from the CURRENT depth-chart snapshot (no week field this early); features are pre-game projections, not realized snaps.
De-vig reference book = pinnacle (sharp). Markets shown: ML + Spread + Total — whichever the book has posted this early.
No injuries are posted yet for the 2026 season, so the projected out-set is empty (honest, not a bug — nobody is ruled out in June).
Verified broad-slate calibration: predicted-lineup Brier 0.2478 vs market 0.2116 (model worse by +0.0362) and vs naive 0.2410 (worse by +0.0068) over 2215 out-of-sample games. A large model-vs-book gap mostly surfaces MODEL error, not market edge.
The only metric that can promote this off NO-GO is accumulated CLV over a sample — this week's notional edge is noise.

Cross-venue futures — P(win the 2027 NFL Championship)

[CROSS-VENUE FUTURES] De-vigged P(win the 2027 NFL championship) per team across Polymarket, Kalshi and a sportsbook consensus (5 US books). Each venue's whole field is normalized to sum 100% so the overround (sportsbooks ~22%, Kalshi ~7%, Polymarket ~0%) is stripped and the three are apples-to-apples. Δ = max−min across venues = the model-INDEPENDENT disagreement (what differs between platforms). A gap is a SIGNAL, not an arb — each venue's fees, liquidity and exact resolution rules must clear first.

Team	Polymarket%	Kalshi%	Books%	Δ venues
Los Angeles Rams	16.6%	15.4%OI 2,601,011	12.8%	3.7pp
Seattle Seahawks	7.5%	7.0%OI 1,477,793	7.0%	0.6pp
Buffalo Bills	7.5%	6.1%OI 1,439,336	7.5%	1.5pp
Baltimore Ravens	6.9%	5.1%OI 972,666	7.1%	1.9pp
Kansas City Chiefs	4.4%	6.1%OI 1,227,796	4.9%	1.7pp
Los Angeles Chargers	4.1%	4.2%OI 604,442	4.7%	0.6pp
Philadelphia Eagles	4.0%	4.2%OI 456,623	4.4%	0.5pp
Denver Broncos	3.4%	5.1%OI 1,858,588	4.0%	1.7pp
New England Patriots	3.7%	4.2%OI 1,214,797	4.5%	0.8pp
San Francisco 49ers	3.6%	4.2%OI 1,324,640	4.4%	0.8pp
Detroit Lions	3.5%	4.2%OI 313,537	4.3%	0.8pp
Cincinnati Bengals	3.7%	4.2%OI 1,776,928	3.6%	0.6pp
Houston Texans	3.6%	3.3%OI 774,207	4.0%	0.8pp
Green Bay Packers	3.2%	3.3%OI 519,912	3.9%	0.7pp
Dallas Cowboys	3.2%	3.3%OI 1,654,013	3.2%	0.1pp
Chicago Bears	2.8%	3.3%OI 1,388,400	3.1%	0.5pp
Jacksonville Jaguars	2.6%	2.3%OI 268,121	2.8%	0.5pp
Washington Commanders	1.3%	2.3%OI 1,468,498	1.4%	1.1pp
Minnesota Vikings	1.5%	1.4%OI 1,929,976	1.7%	0.3pp
Indianapolis Colts	1.4%	1.4%OI 232,852	1.5%	0.2pp
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.1%	1.4%OI 964,951	1.6%	0.5pp
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.2%	1.4%OI 401,134	1.2%	0.2pp
New York Giants	1.2%	1.4%OI 1,345,697	1.2%	0.2pp
Atlanta Falcons	1.1%	1.4%OI 147,433	0.9%	0.5pp
Carolina Panthers	1.0%	0.5%OI 1,065,697	1.0%	0.5pp
New Orleans Saints	0.9%	0.5%OI 1,466,855	0.9%	0.4pp
Las Vegas Raiders	0.8%	0.5%OI 1,735,859	0.6%	0.3pp
Tennessee Titans	0.8%	0.5%OI 255,543	0.5%	0.3pp
New York Jets	1.0%	0.5%OI 162,731	0.4%	0.6pp
Miami Dolphins	1.1%	0.5%OI 1,022,721	0.2%	0.8pp
Cleveland Browns	1.0%	0.5%OI 376,362	0.3%	0.6pp
Arizona Cardinals	0.9%	0.5%OI 137,711	0.2%	0.7pp

32 teams · venues: polymarket, kalshi, books · fetched polymarket 2026-06-20T21:17:52 · kalshi 2026-06-20T21:17:52 · books 2026-06-20T21:17:52. Futures (whole-season winner), NOT the per-game model — a different, model-free comparison; the per-game NO-GO does not apply here.